Archivos Mensuales: septiembre 2019

Consensio Trading System. A view of a programmer (Part 3 of 3)

In previous parts, I described my toughts about Consensio. In this part, after watch this video, from Tyler Jenks:

I decided to implement something more complete than my previous Consensio Indicators. This is my rant about the topic.

I will coment things about the theory exposed in the video and some changes I made in order to acomodate the results in an indicator more siutable to be the base of an strategy (with easy compable values in order to make the conditions for entry/exit increase/decrease the positions in the asset more easy, using the point of view  of a programmer)

About the video

In the video, Tyler describes Consensio as a way of «categorize» the status of an asset: is in a bullish market?, in a bear one?, and how bear o bull is?
In all the video, Tyles uses 2 SMAs, the call them Intermediate SMA and Long SMA, and make comparisions with price. But instead os use the price values, uses a mini-SMA of 2 weeks to smooth the values, so, from now on, all this article will call the 3 data as Price, Short SMA, and Long SMA

In all the videos from Tyler, he uses weekly timeframe, with SMA values of 2, 7 and 30 weeks periods.

Tyles describes two variables to value the perform of an asset, first the «Directionalities»


If we have 3 different period SMAs, and we use 3 states to distinguiss the direction of each one (is going up, is flat or is going down), we can categorize the status of the «direction» of the asset in function of these combinations.

For example, in a full bull market, the SMAs, for price, short and long will be facing up, In the opposite, in a full bear market, the 3 SMAa will be facing down.

Ok, but how we categorize the rest of the posible states? For example, if only the long SMA is facing up and the short and the price are facing down?

As combinatorial result, there is 27 states. Tyler breaks those in 3 tables of 9 states, one for Bull level, other for Bear levels and another for Flat levels.

In his video, level 1 is more powerfull than level 9.

This are the tables of combinations (extracted from the video):

Tylers is taken this tables from an old presentation, maybe from a brochure. The thing about brochures is they are written with the presentation and the logos and the format in main, instead of rigurosity.

I study those tables and I think that simply are bad transcribed… for example, the Flat table values 5 and 8 have the same dfirectionalites, and the bull and bear tables gives more weight to price than the short SMA (I think the column titles are swapped)

With these tables, you can name the «directionality» of an asset, with something like: Bull 1, or Bear 3, etc.
This is cool from an investor poin of view, but as programmer, I like to include all on this in a simple value, positive from bull markets and negative for bear markets, in order to manage just a variable instead of jump into a nighmare of concatenated ‘if’ code like:  if bull then if bear then, etc, so I wrote my own tables, with the (I think) correct weights  and reorganize the values to reflect this: one unique level from -13 to 13 showing the direction of the asset.

13 will be the more bullish scenario, 0 mean totaly flat market and -13 the more bearish scenario.

These are my tables:


The second thing to measure the class of an asset mentioned in the video is called «Relativities».

Takes the denomination from the relative position of each SMAa with the others.
For study them, Tyler uses a simulation where he changes the price for a signal with a well know oscillation: a sine wave.

From this sine wave, calculates 2 SMAs, the short period and the long period. With this conditions, he studys the interaction of the 3 signals, watching the positional orders of them (witch is in the top, in the middle or in the bottom position).

In this figure, you can see the simulation:

Green will be the Price, Yellow the short SMA and Red the Long SMA.

We can see a full cycle: prices going up, a period of «flattiness» in the upper part of the sine waves and prices going down. (Also we can notice the «smoothiness» from the signals… a longer SMAs does not reach the same amplitude as the price or the sorter one…)
Also we can see that the first signal going up is the price, then the sort and then the large period SMA.

If we break down this full cycle, anotating the interactions of the signals, we (almost) get the complete order in witch the signals go from cero to high and viceversa. I say almost, because with this kind of signal you can not reach all the possible combinations of positional orders than the reality can achieve. In order to get the full picture we will need another combination of signals.
Because in the real world, with real price data, the prices does not oscillate as a sine waves, all these combinations are possible, so we need to categorize aswell.

If we do this exercise, all we get is 13 possibles combinations.
Tyler denominates those combinations with letters, from A to M and this is the table of possible combinations:

(P goes for Price, Short for the Short SMA and Long for the Long SMA)

In this case, if the asset transition from estate M to state A will be indicating that a new bull market is starting.
If a Bull market level 1 is starting to decline, It will be making transitions to upper lleters: to B, C, D etc, untill reach the G level (flat market or about to transitioning to bear market), and if this down trend continues, it will end in K, L, M states (if not reverse first).
So, this letters provides like a compass. I see this like a circle, if the letters increase, the cicle increase, from bull, to flat to bear, completing a full cycle.

In my indicator,I use this table but, instead of use an «Equal» comparison, I use «Equal» or crosses, in order to get all the crosses happening between 2 candles and show those in my indicator.
If I use strictly comparison in my code, in reality we will be loosing too many transitions, so, I instead of use an strictly comparison (A==B) I compare the percent of change between the 2 values and if is greater than a treshold (definable in the indicator) mark as «above», if is less tan the treshold is mark as «Below» and if is not greater or smaller tan the treshold (or if the 2 SMAs has crossed) I consider the 2 values as «Equal or Crossed» and take note of this and show the value of that transition in the indicator.

I made myself a sine wave generator, and  inyected his signal instead of price into my indicator, in order to see all the changes in state that this signals can offer to us.

Here you have a picture showing the starting of a bull market:

As usual, Green is price, Yellow is the short SMA and red the long one.

You can see in the lower part, the transition of the letterts, going from states J, K, L to A, B, C, until reach G letter, indicating a change is goint to take place.

This is the Bear cycle starting:

In this case, the letters goes from F, G to H, I, J K showing the progress of the sine waves in to the bear cycle.
Note that with this signals there are states missing, like the M, because is almost impossible with this simulation and those values than the 3 signals be equal or crosses at the same time (perhaps doing some tunning…) But this can happen in reality, so we include all the combinations.

How looks this kind of indicator with real prices?, let see some examples:


Here we can see the last bull cycle to the ATH, the falling in to bear market and raising again.
Of course, the indicator is delayed, because of the SMAs.

SPX 500


I like this indicator to «navigate» lists of tickers, and get in seconds a view of their status, and, if this is good, analyze in more detail with other tools.

The name of this indicator is Consensio REAL (Sorry for the lack of imagination choosing the name), and you can find it in Tradingview Public library.

In this URL you can find All of my published scripts in Tradingview: Nakitxu’s Tradingview Indicators, for now, all of them are open to the public.
Don’t hesitate in leave any comments of suggestions (and push the like & follow button… it helps)

Consensio Trading System. A view of a programmer (Part 2 of 3)

Note: This is Part 2 of a series, in the following link,  you have the previous Part 1:

In the first part, I talk about the development of the «Consensio with Signals» indicator.

This indicator works, but in a limited way. I have programed a strategy using this indicator and works, maybe some day I will publish all the results of backtesting different strategies.

Works, but, thinking about my Consensio implementation, there are things missing in the system.
For example, my indicator just look for the positional orders of the SMAs, does not take into account if the SMAs are rising, or falling, and only 6 levels of bull/bear starting to look a little bit insufficient for me, so, I decided incorporate a new variable into an indicator: use the distance of the price to the 3 SMAs, in a ponderated way: the distance of the price versus the long SMA has more weight than the short SMA or the medium SMA.

With this idea, I created this second Consensio script, this time called «Consensio Hystogram Forecasted» (yes, I now, Hystogram is bad spelled…)

Here is how it looks:

This is not an overlayed version, is an histogram, running in a separate space from the main graphic. Shows the bull/bear levels in the upper part and shows an histogram with positive and negative values, calculated from the distance between the price and the SMAs.

The values are calculated using different weights for the distances from the price to each SMAs. These porcentages are definables by the user, but the defaults are:

  • 50% for the SMA Long
  • 35% for the SMA medium
  • 15% for the SMA short

Once this value is calculated, is multiplied for the level of bull/bear and show in the histogram. This give us a little bit more of «whats is going on» info, but I still feeling that this work is not complete. My indicators are not using the change of direction of the SMAs, so… the work must continue!

This indicator is also availlable for any Tradingview user, you can find it in the Tradingview public library of indicators under the name «Consensio Hystogram Forecasted», and also you can find it in this URL: Consensio Hystogram Forecasted

In this URL you can find All of my published scripts in Tradingview: Nakitxu’s Tradingview Indicators, for now, all of them are open to the public.
Don’t hesitate in leave any comments of suggestions (and push the like & follow button… it helps)

Consensio trading system. A view of a programmer (Part 1 of 3)

About me

My name is Inaki (aka Nakitxu). I’m an Electronic Engineer, but I spent my entire carreer working as programmer. I wrote my first commercial game in assembler Z-80 when I was 14 years old (and I have been in this world over half-century)
Actually I have a partial time job as Industrial programmmer (I program machines and complete factories) but I had luck and learn about Bitcoin a few years ago and I could buy a few at low prices.
This circumstance forces me to think and learn about the technical analisys in all his variants (tired of be just a hodler!).
I have spent the last years learn every piece of trading system I found, while try to not loose all my money in the way 🙂

(If any moment you read any strange english, sorry for that, but english is not my first languaje)

Consensio trading system

It’s a propietary system from Tyler Jenks (Lucid Investments Strategies website), open now for the public through their videos on his hyperwave channel: (Hyperwave Youtube Channel)

Consensio trading system is a manner of use simple moving averages (SMA from now on…) to get rid of the price in your charts, and focus just in witch state is the asset… is in a Bull market?, bearish?, flat? without being affected for the noise of the rapid up and down of the price movement.

It’s very usefull used in long timeframes (1 day, 1 week or more)

Since my first knowdelegde of Consensio watching videos from Hyperwave channel, (I must admit, I did not watch the specific videos of Consensio…) I just keep the idea in my main: the idea of use 3 different SMAs to try to predict the status of the market, and see if I can come with some idea for write an Tradingview Indicator.

Tyler use to talk in their videos about check the SMAs, and in function of their movement, crosses and positional order of them, enter/exit from a trade, or buy more/shell shares to preserve (and gain) capital.
I think he has the ability of doing this just by hand, but, I will try to disect this technique to come with some useful tools (indicators) to work with.

Mi first Indicator for Consensio

In my first attempt, I try to use the positional order of 3 different period SMAs in order to get a «value» of how bearish or bullish is the current status of an asset.
The idea behind this is, in a bull market, the first SMA starting the ascension is the shorter period SMA, then the middle, then the long period SMA. In a Bear market is the opposite, first descend the short SMA, then the middle, then the long.

For example, to illustrate this, here we have a graphic example. There are 3 SMAs, green, yellow and red, corresponding (and in this order) to short sma (period of 3 values) , medium (7 values) and long (30 values):

As we can see, the price is going up, then the 3 SMAs are going up, but the first to raise is the green, then the yellow (medium) and finally the long term SMA.

So… with this idea, we can «categorize» the positional order of the 3 SMAs, and get a «level» value than indicates if the asset is Bull or Bear with 3 levels of «intensity».

The following table show these combinations and the associated levels:

With this idea in my main, I came up with my first Consensio indicator (well, my second one, my first one just show the 3 smas… nothing more,  so nothing to mention specially)

Consists in an overlay indicator (so share the space of the price graphic) and shows the 3 SMAs (very important include this so we dont waste slots for insert more indicators, you know… there is restrictions in TradingView regarding how many indicators you can set simultaneously in your graphic) and several labels, indicating any change of the level of Bullness/Beariness of the asset. Tese labels are show in the upper part of the indicator.

Here you have an example:

In the upper part of the picture you can see the labels showing the Bull/Bear levels (only shows a new label when the value changes)

The idea is open/close or increase/decrease your exposition to the asset in function of these levels.
The amounts of the positions is up to you.

If you wanna play with this indicator, you can (It’s open for everyone), you can find it in this URL (TradingView): Consensio With Signals (It’s name in Trdingview Library is «Consensio with Signals»)

Later I develop a second version of this indicator, this time include 2 forecasted values: calculate 2 more values for the 3 SMAs, supposing that the price doesnt change (but removing the first values in the calculation of the SMAs). You can find (and use) this versión in this URL: Consensio with Signals Forecasted (the name in Tradingview public library of indicators is «Consensio with Signals Forecasted»)

In this URL you can find All of my published scripts in Tradingview: Nakitxu’s Tradingview Indicators, for now, all of them are open to the public.
Don’t hesitate in leave any comments of suggestions (and push the like & follow button… it helps)